What tiny signs might there be that a real shift has taken place in the ANC’s thinking on how best to create jobs? Will Zuma hint, like ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe , that the time to talk tough to the trade unions has come and that it’s better to have more lower-paid jobs for more people than fewer jobs of better quality?
Trade unions stand poised to accuse Zuma of betrayal should he backtrack on the concept of “decent work” (see box on page 31) that was agreed to at the 2007 ANC conference and which appeared in the party’s election manifesto. Given these political sensitivities, whatever is said will be phrased in deep code and more than likely be open to ambiguous interpretation.
Next week’s speech aside, it is becoming clear that the ground is again shifting on the most contentious issue in the ANC alliance: the principles around which the labour market should be regulated. While the local government elections, likely in either April or May, will take up a lot of time and attention in the first quarter of the year, the jobs debate and policy around it will dominate politics and government this year.
Among those, especially in business, who have long complained that trade union power and the close political relationship between the ANC and Cosatu are responsible for distorting employment conditions and wages, Mantashe’s comments caused excitement. But beware: rather than such comments being the result of a thoughtful and considered debate behind closed doors within the ANC, they have popped up in a chaotic context with hardly any process of prior discussion.
None of the recent policy documents from either government or the ANC — including economic development minister Ebrahim Patel’s New Growth Path — has raised the labour market for discussion. Nor has it been discussed in the forum where the ANC’s economic policy heavyweights meet: the party’s economic transformation committee. ...
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