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Monday, November 8, 2010

How was Marcus first year?

Transparency and predictability characterised South African monetary policy over the past year of economic turbulence.

Economists say this is to a large extent thanks to Gill Marcus, who on Tuesday celebrates one year as Reserve Bank governor.

"She has exceeded our expectations," said Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) chief economist Lumkile Mondi. "She has made the bank much more open and much friendlier to engagement. She has allowed us to talk much more openly about the inflation targeting environment and about the exchange rate."



In September the monetary policy committee (MPC), under Marcus' chairmanship, lowered the prime lending rate to a 30-year low of 9.5% with inflation at a five-year low of 3.2%.

Roelof Botha, economic adviser for PwC, said Marcus had introduced a broader policy vision. "In the past the Reserve Bank was more or less exclusively focused on containing inflation," he said.

"The policy approach now also accommodates growth."

This broader policy approach was spelt out in February when Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan wrote to Marcus emphasising that monetary policy should have due regard for factors that might affect sustainable economic growth, including employment and labour market developments.

Mondi said Marcus listens to ideas. "Under the previous governor, talking about the rand being weakened was a non-discussion," he said.

Although Marcus has repeatedly said the bank will not interfere directly with the exchange rate, she has conceded that the strength of the currency is problematic.

Since November last year the rand has gained more than 8% against the US dollar, largely due to capital flowing into the local bond market.

Business representatives have generally praised Marcus's work of the past year.

"While many business leaders may have liked to see interest rates fall faster and sooner by now, there is a strong recognition that Governor Marcus has had to realistically assess the balance of risks in a difficult economic environment," said Business Unity South Africa (Busa) CEO Jerry Vilakazi.

"She has sought to raise awareness of what monetary policy is all about. By reaching out to stakeholders she has been able to promote a common understanding about the role of monetary policy, even where there are still disagreements about some issues."

Labour has historically had many disagreements with the Reserve Bank, especially on the pace at which interest rates fall. But Botha said Marcus had avoided much criticism from trade unions and business.

"Neither have voiced the type of criticism the Reserve Bank faced during (Tito) Mboweni's tenure," he said.

Patrick Craven, spokesman for the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), said although Marcus was "tied to inflation targeting", she was willing to listen to Cosatu's issues. "Nevertheless, listening should not be confused with actual policy formulation and implementation, which is the same as Mr Mboweni's," said Craven.

Federation of South African Trade Unions (Fedusa) general secretary Dennis George said the bank could have cut interest rates further in the past year, but Marcus made an effort to talk to Fedusa about the bank's mandate and factors taken into account when the MPC made an interest rate decision.

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