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Showing posts with label Taylor's Rule. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Taylor's Rule. Show all posts

Monday, September 6, 2010

Taylor's Rule for calculating prime interest rate



Taylor's Rule

Estimating where interest rates should be.

According to Taylor's Rule, the Prime Interest Rates should currently be :

(a)   "neutral" Real Prime Rate                                                                          5.5%
        (average September 1989 - July 1995; 1999 - 2007)

(b)    Expected CPI inflation: 3Q 2011                                                               5.0%


(c)      0.5 x (Current CPI - CPI  "target")                                                            -0.4%
         = 0.5 x (3.7% - 4.5%)

(d)     0.5 x (Output "Gap")
        = 0.5 x (-2.2%)                                                                                            -1.1%

Target Prime Interest Rate:                                                                                 9.0%
Current Prime Interest Rate:  01 September 2010                                               10.0%

Comment:   The current outlook for inflation and the slow recovery in the economy could still mean another 0.5% interest rate cut this month, prime falling to 9.5%, according to a simple Taylor rule. 

By Cees Bruggemans, Chief Economist FNB